Critical thinking on the markets, the economy and the investing environment from the investment professionals at Columbia Threadneedle Investments.
The Long Unwinding Road of Quantitative Easing
Mark Burgess, Deputy Global Chief Investment Officer, assesses the next phase of global monetary tightening. The U.S. Federal Reserve has raised rates several times since December 2015 and has signaled the beginning of the end of QE. Will other central banks follow?
Investment Strategy Outlook: Three Thoughts About Today's Low Volatility Conditions
Jeffrey Knight, CFA, Global Head of Investment Solutions, examines the low volatility environment and makes observations on the asymmetric risk environment.
New Accounting Standard May Accelerate U.S. Pension De-Risking
Thomas Egan Jr., FSA, EA, CFP, Actuary, discusses how this latest change to FASB rules should encourage plans to move toward de-risking strategies. With less emphasis on Expected Return on Pension Assets, the objection to Liability Driven Investing, as well as a larger allocation to fixed income in general, has been removed.
Emerging Markets Spotlight — India and Argentina
Natasha Ebtehadj, Portfolio Manager, Asian Equities, looks at Prime Minister Narendra Modi's reform program and suggests that efforts to modernize the financial system will have lasting benefits for the country.
Additional Reading: Argentina: The "Emerging" Emerging Market
Ilan Furman, Portfolio Manager, Global Emerging Markets, discusses Argentina’s efforts to reform its economic health and what its reinstatement to the MSCI Emerging Markets index will mean in symbolic and practical terms.
What Will End The Search For Yield?
James Cielinski, CFA, Global Head of Fixed Income, discusses the impact that yield-driven fixed income investing has had on the market and the drivers of the search for yield.
When Balance Is Not Enough, Pt. 2
Jeffrey Knight, CFA, Global Head of Investment Solutions, looks at the performance of the Adaptive Risk Allocation portfolio since the U.S. election and how the market state approach to risk allocation may be more beneficial to portfolios in the long-run than a purely balanced risk approach.
Hedging Interest Rate Risk With Floating Rate Loans
With the Federal Reserve having changed its tack from accommodative to one of normalization, investors will look for ways to hedge against rising interest rate risk. With their adjustable coupon, floating rate loans have the potential to hedge risk in a rising rate environment.
Alternative Beta Primer
Bill Landes, PhD., Deputy Head of Global Investment Solutions and Alternative Investments, examines the use of alternative betas as a strategy for increasing portfolio diversification and improving risk-adjusted returns. Alternative betas have minimal market directionality, and are less correlated with traditional markets, making them good portfolio diversification tools.
Asian Bond Markets Versus the Federal Reserve Bank
In sharp contrast to 2013, when the suggestion of higher rates by the Fed was enough to disrupt emerging currency markets and convince investors to significantly reallocate out of emerging markets, Asian bond markets have shown resilience in response to rising U.S. interest rates and the new administration, as several of the region’s central banks continue to reflate in order to maintain a trend of stronger economic growth.
Additional reading: Emerging Markets' Cloud Receding
Krishan Selva, CFA, Client Portfolio Manager, Global Emerging Markets, discusses the improving outlook for emerging markets equities as the new U.S. administration softens its rhetoric and adopts a more pragmatic approach.
When Balance is Not Enough
Jeff Knight, Global Head of Investment Solutions, discusses the benefits of employing an adaptive approach to risk allocation. With uncertain prospects for continued gains in equities and bonds, Knight believes that a static balanced approach to risk allocation may put investors at a disadvantage.
Investment Strategy Outlook 2Q 2017
Jeff Knight, Global Head of Investment Solutions, writes on the strong run of equity performance that we have seen, and considers the outlook for asset classes in the months ahead.
The Makings of a Commodity Bull Market
David Donora, Head of Commodities, notes that events in early 2017 have supported stronger performance from commodities, and that elements may be in place for a bull market in the asset class. Stronger economic growth in both developed and developing markets is increasing demand at a time when supply is constrained.
French Elections: What to Expect Should Le Pen Prevail
Mark Burgess, CIO, EMEA and Global Head of Equities, evaluates the impact on markets should Marine Le Pen win the French presidential election. The immediate reaction of markets is likely to be a spike in volatility.
What to Watch For From the Fed
Edward Al-Hussainy, Senior Interest Rate and Currency Analyst, The Fed concluded its March meeting with an expected announcement to raise rates. Here is what to watch for now.
Technology is Bringing Responsible Investment Into the Mainstream
Iain Richards, Head of Responsible Investment, EMEA, discusses how new technologies are helping to seamlessly integrate ESG factors into the portfolio research process.
Long March to Higher Interest Rates
Jim Cielinski, Global Head of Fixed Income, examines the new global economic environment, where fiscal policy supplants monetary policy as an engine of economic growth. China will be watched as it shifts from an export production orientation economy to a domestic consumption oriented one.
Natasha Ebtehadj, Portfolio Manager, Asian Equities takes a look at Asian markets and their ability to withstand any potential changes to global trade dynamics that may result from the policies of the new American administration. She believes that, while not immune, Asian economies possess enough diversity to provide investment opportunities should significant changes be enacted.
Update: 5-Year Capital Market Assumptions
The Global Asset Allocation Team performs its semi-annual exercise in reviewing its market expectations. This helps the team set strategic asset allocations and design portfolios for diverse investment goals. Maintaining long-term forecasts provides helpful context for responding thoughtfully to daily swings in market prices.
Investment Strategy Outlook – Q1 2017
Jeff Knight, Global Head of Investment Solutions, and Anwiti Bahuguna, Senior Portfolio Manager, review 2016, and the pivotal 4th quarter, and provide their outlook for 2017 as the new U.S. administration settles in.
Watch: Investment Themes Update1
Toby Nangle, Co-Head of Global Asset Allocation, discusses the current landscape for global multi-asset investors.
Why Non-U.S. Institutional Investors are Investing in U.S. Municipal Bonds
James Dearborn, Head of Municipal Bond Investments and Senior Municipal Portfolio Manager and Kimberly Campbell, Senior Municipal Portfolio Manager look at the reasons that U.S. municipal bonds, historically favored by taxable U.S. investors, have attracted increasingly more interest from non-U.S. institutional investors.
Additional reading: Municipal Bond Outlook
Mr. Dearborn provides his review of the current environment for municipal bonds.
So Long, Bond Bull Market
Jim Cielinski, Global Head of Fixed Income, explains why we've entered a new era for fixed income, as central banks shift their attention from monitoring deflation risks to balancing the need for economic growth while keeping inflation in check.
Additional reading: Currencies Face an Uncertain 2017
As a new U.S. administration begins and the U.K. prepares to leave the European Union, Matthew Cobon, Head of Government and FX examines the landscape for currencies in 2017.
Emerging Markets in the Wake of the U.S. Election
Dara White, Anwiti Bahuguna, and Edward Kerschner provide insight into emerging markets and the effect the Trump administration may have on emerging markets.
Adaptive Risk Parity Q&A with Jeff Knight
Jeff Knight, Global Head of Investment Solutions, is featured in an interview with CIO Magazine on the subject of adaptive risk parity.
Toby Nangle, Head of Asset Allocation, EMEA, examines the collision of globalization and the growing strength of political populism we have witnessed over the last year.
Mortality Improvements: Less Costly for Pension Plans
Thomas Egan, Actuary, Liability Driven Investments, evaluates the potential for positive improvements on pensions’ funding status based on new mortality data recently released by the Society of Actuaries.
Q&A with Jeff Knight
Jeff Knight, Global Head of Investment Solutions, is featured in an interview with Pensions and Investments on the subject of adaptive risk parity.
Negative Interest Rate Policies
Maya Bhandari and Jeff Knight of Columbia Threadneedle Investments examine central bank policies and their efforts to stimulate their countries’ economies through the implementation of negative interest rate policies.
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The views expressed are as of the date given, may change as market or other conditions change and may differ from views expressed by other Columbia Management Investment Advisers, LLC (CMIA) associates or affiliates. Actual investments or investment decisions made by CMIA and its affiliates, whether for its own account or on behalf of clients, may not necessarily reflect the views expressed. This information is not intended to provide investment advice and does not take into consideration individual investor circumstances. Investment decisions should always be made based on an investor's specific financial needs, objectives, goals, time horizon and risk tolerance. Asset classes described may not be suitable for all investors. Since economic and market conditions change frequently, there can be no assurance that the trends described here will continue or that any forecasts are accurate. Information provided by third parties is deemed to be reliable but may be derived using methodologies or techniques that are proprietary or specific to the third-party source.