China seeks self-sufficiency amid slowing growth
Beijing's new strategy of self-dependent growth seeks to stabilize highly leveraged sectors, such as property, amid the prospects of a slowing economy. While 2021's policy surprises caught investors unaware, looking ahead, we believe there are opportunities to invest in China's large and broad equity universe in line with emerging policy priorities.
Kishida: Japan's 100th prime minister
Columbia Threadneedle's Daisuke Nomoto, Global Head of Japanese Equities, discusses the potential economic and financial market impact of Fumio Kishida's election as Japan's 100th prime minister.
High-yield forecast: Default projections continue to fall
Our High-Yield Credit Research Team's forecast indicates that default projections have continued to fall — notably below the long-term default rate average — driven by improvements in expectations for the energy, transportation/airline and leisure sectors.
Break down the breakdown of the global supply chain
Problems with supply and transportation stubbornly persist, even as the broader economic and pandemic recovery evolves. Paul DiGiacamo, Dave Egan and Mari Shor dig into what's going on, and what type of resolution can be expected for the supply chain in the near to mid term.
The race to net zero: The role of carbon pricing in global decarbonization
With climate change on the top of everyone's mind, Columbia Threadneedle's Responsible Investment analyst team looks at what it would take to get to net zero, why it's important to mitigate the impact of climate change and what impact this process could have on the economy and financial markets.
Down the crypto rabbit hole
Crypto networks are moving beyond alternative currency and creating tangible value, says Senior Equity Analyst David Egan. But how might analysts assign a valuation to these new companies? Egan looks at how existing analytical tools can offer insight into valuation, revenue and risks for digital platforms.
Oil prices are back up, but where are they headed?
The energy sector took a substantial hit during the pandemic, as the effective shutdown of the world's economy pushed oil demand and production to unprecedented lows. While the industry has recovered since then, supply and demand dynamics could significantly impact the outlook for prices.
An electrifying opportunity: Investing in the global energy transition
Electrification of the economy is key to decarbonization and a pillar of the global shift toward a green power paradigm. Mary Titler, Senior Fixed Income Analyst, examines the central role of the U.S. electric utility sector in decarbonizing the economy in an effort to achieve net-zero emissions goals, the drivers that are supporting this trend and potential investment implications.
High-yield forecast: Default projections are down
Our High-Yield Credit Research Team's forecast indicates that default projections have fallen dramatically, driven by economic reopening, fiscal stimulus and significant market liquidity. However, energy, real estate, leisure and transportation sectors continue to present the areas most vulnerable to downside risk.
Does the value rotation have staying power?
The prospects of improving economic growth and rising rates have driven a much-observed cyclical rotation as investors bet that assets that benefit from a strengthening economy and a pickup in inflation will outperform growth stocks. Jason Wang, Global Head of Quantitative Research, explains why he believes this trend is likely to continue.
Are higher yields cause for alarm?
Rising U.S. Treasury yields have unsettled equity markets, but our Chief Investment Officer Colin Moore does not think that the recent activity alters the positive longer term outlook.
Don't worry about inflation just yet
The U.S. appears poised for a period of high growth, and along with rising GDP prospects, inflation hawks have begun sounding alarms. Anwiti Bahuguna, Head of Multi-Asset Strategy, writes that the potential for rising inflation is something to take seriously, but the inflation story is not so simple — partly because the Federal Reserve has been clear that its reaction will be different this time.
A Better Approach to Risk Parity
The tenets of risk allocation are widely accepted, so why has risk parity felt like such a disappointment over the recent past? The problem, according to Joshua Kutin, Head of North America Asset Allocation, is borne out of a static or “strategic” approach to risk allocation, which locks in tight ranges of risk weights regardless of market conditions.
U.S. GDP Expectations Revised Higher
We're increasing our U.S. growth forecast for 2021, writes Head of Multi-Asset Strategy, Anwiti Bahuguna, given increased fiscal spending. But a lot depends on the successful distribution of vaccines.
Long-Term Trends Drive Emerging Markets
Emerging markets will continue to benefit from the convergence of many long-term trends according to Dara White, Head of Emerging Markets Equities. A growing middle class, buoyant domestic demand and strong corporate managements are just a few of the factors he believes will drive EM in the coming years.
Fixed-Income Outlook: Focus on Credit
In 2021, credit analysis will be the primary source of bond market outperformance according to our fixed-income team. Financial strength and relative valuation will be key levers for downside protection in a bond market with an imbalance of opportunity.
Emerging Markets: Alpha Potential Through Responsible Investing
Emerging markets are a perfect opportunity set for the application of responsible investing principles, contend Young Kim, EM portfolio manager, and analyst Kyle Bergacker. They believe Columbia Threadneedle's environmental, social and governance research framework enhances traditional datasets in a complementary manner to better identify quality companies within emerging markets.
High-Yield Forecast: Defaults Have Peaked, A Return to Normal
Our High-Yield Credit Research Team's forecast indicates that defaults have peaked and that over the coming months a return to an environment more in line with long-term historical averages is likely. Any downside would most likely come from higher-than-expected defaults in the energy, real estate, leisure and transportation sectors.